Ukrainian passenger plane carrying 180 people 'crashes near Tehran'

An educated guess would have said yes yesterday, and apparently it is a fact.

Yessirree, very similar to the Swissair off Long Island some 20 years ago.

FWIW, Lufthansa has already canceled their flights to Iran. The flight yesterday returned to FRA halfway through the flight.

Hello Hans,

As a former pilot I totally agree with you. The disrespect and carelessness of Ukrainian airline.
are a significant factor in the event.
It is clear to everyone that after the assault, the Iranians will be tense and nervous.
It is clear to everyone that the plane had to be in motion in a dangerous airspace on a flight from Tehran to Kiev.

Just an airline sub leve

That is not caused by an Engine Fire... and the ball of fire coming down comes from an Explosion... IMHO.... Somebody is putting up a smoke screen.

reminds me of the Iran Air Airbus shot down by the US navy ( a mistake as to the nature of the target but intentional as to the shooting) and the Libyan Arab airlines jet shot down by the Israeli military....

Caught in the crossfire perhaps?

Possibly. Iran says it won't provide the black boxes to Boeing. That could be because we're practically at war with Iran, or it could be because they are trying to cover it up. But note that an AA launch and intercept at 8,000 feet be seen by many, many people and that would leak out all over social media.

That's a pretty extraordinary claim that I haven't heard anywhere else. Got a link?

You know, adsb reports like every few seconds, even on my little Cessna's. It shows that's adsb reporting and it'll be a nice system and it has to at least update every few seconds, Why does it suddenly stop on the flight tracking? It would show the speed/decent as it went down, the video people have shown of it on fire shows a decent to crash of course but not vertically. Even if it was vertically that would still be enough time to show some more hits on the flight tracking.

That's a bit bizarre personally. The adsb is very basic it's a box and can be a very small box mounted within the plane, on GA planes it can even be mounted on the wingtip it's that small.
It simply needs an external GPS/WAAS antenna the size of your wallet, connected to this small box which then feeds to the transponder paired with some good old electricity.

Just to clarify, ADSB basically reports GPS co-ordinates, altitude data from the encoding transponder, a tail number assigned to the ICAO code, speed, basically designed for aircraft tracking and air traffic purposes.

There seem to be a few reporting stations in that area and failing that MLAT can bounce, aircraft > aircraft > reporting station through multiple aircraft to reach a ground station even to GA aircraft the same system is used by both airlines and General aviation. 100's of thousands of stations have been set up privately that feed into this network, I have one on my building myself. They are common even out there in the sticks, it costs like $100 or some websites hand them out for free to benefit their website and add coverage.

So, did it just not update for what looks like at least 30 seconds? Unlikely when it's so rapid normally.

Did the small box that is mounted internally and near the transponder so I'd imagine up front in the cockpit get hit by something? Alternatively, If it's a new system it probably had to be directly connected into the console behind the screens if it's anything like the glass cockpit in GA systems ADSB upgrades we had recently.

Did the aircraft lose electrical power as the result of some damage from the engine?

The radarbox24 link Kevin provided showed updates from this plane as it took off about every 10 seconds from adsb when I counted it out, unless the plane gets in trouble at exactly 10 seconds it would have had to hit the ground or go so low to the terrain that it couldn't transmit within let's say 20 seconds to give a massive benefit of the doubt.

Just for reference, my ADSB antenna mounted at about 30ft off the ground picks up multiple aircraft in excess of 250 miles away via MLat so Multi-Lateral aircraft to aircraft to ground to my very antenna on a daily basis in large numbers. So at 8,000 feet, that signal is reaching an internet-connected antenna I can guarantee with full certainty that it would.

Personally I believe the only way that the signal is getting cut off like that with an ADSB device is cutting the power to it or damaging the cabling/box between the transponder/adsb box/gps / waas antenna or damage to any of those components.

Just my thoughts at 3.30am.

o7

The climb looks pretty nominal as well.

The ADS-B quit at 7350' asl. What "8000 feet"?

The B738 didn't fall out of the sky. The pilots turned around for an emergency return back to OIIE. A witness on the ground filmed the last moments of the B738 on fire with a cellphone. Other aircraft traffic reported the same fire.

The B738 somehow caught fire, remaining in wings level flight but losing altitude until the bitter end, preceded by visible fuel/air backfire and two fuel explosions.

Every time there is an incident, every aircraft manufacturer should embrace it as an opportunity to use the findings to improve their product. I certainly hope Boeing’s frustration is focused more on the questionable decisions made to the Max than this.

I've seen my airplane in 45 minutes into my planned flight on FA while looking at it sit on the ramp. Things happen.

Does FlightAware show the plot lines/paths flights on the maps to some extent based off the filed flight plan vs ADS-b/radar tracking?

I noticed the same thing-thought the flight had been removed, but there it was, 08 Jan, underway and 3 some hours in and the map backing it up. I do think there was something on screen stating “estimated”, or the like, but the flight data had only 6 data points from 6:12 am to 6:14 am. I’d post a screen shot but I don’t think it’s possible.

I did that a few years ago with MH370....that path had the flight going into China. Few hours later....gone.

About what? Iran first claimed engine failure, but how could they know so soon after it happened?

What level of human error do you find acceptable?

Just most of the popular press, including NPR.

I’m not sure it’s been confirmed the transponder was de-energized. Do you have a source confirming that?

After about 2 days everybody understood a few things: 1) it was of course a mistake. No matter how much we demonize our adversaries there was no reason to shoot down a civilian airliner; 2) the Russians had shot down a Ukrainian military transport a few days previously, so this was likely what they mistook MH-17 for; and 3) the entire missile battery and its C2 was controlled by the Russian government and its troops. No way are they going simply hand a Buk battery to their proxies in the area.

The only surprising thing was that the Russians continued to deny it. It was downright bizarre. In the days following the shoot down an enormous amount of photographic and written evidence was found on publicly available sites like social media (Vk was a treasure trove) providing incontrovertible proof. The British website Bellingcat took this evidence a step further and identified the people, places, equipment, timelines, and movements of the equipment between a particular Russian battalion and their base in Russia to/from the location of the Buk when the missile was launched. The Russian denials became increasingly bizarre. It was almost as if Russia decided it was too poor to own up to its mistake and pay the enormous compensation.

It isn't political it's turned military .

Grow up. You seem to live in a fantasy world. You state “...whenever normally elected leaders say no, no, they act to destabilize...”. Your supposition is childlike.

Was there any “unusual destination” involved? No, Tehran and Kiev are quite well travelled airports.

The CVR should be able to confirm communication before the explosion. Since he taxi’d and was approved for departure, that implies communication but certainly doesn’t confirm it. As for communication after/during the strike, it’s unlikely either pilot was able to broadcast, rest their souls. I do agree with your initial question though, why was he cleared to depart in the midst of Iran waiting for a response from all those missiles they launched. Seems like a reckless thing to for sure.

Who didn’t admit their mistake? The Iranians were quite quick in accepting responsibility for their mistake.

You're not stakeholders of USA?

You doubt that the Iranians shot down the jet? They admitted their mistake. What will it take to convince you?

Embassy to Ukraine reports engine failure

Because they have family there for example. Most of them had dual citizenship and were on their way back after visiting over the holidays. One of them worked as a mechanical design engineer for Bombardier Recreational Products near my place. BRP are makers of skidoos and seadoos. The guy was highly competent and well loved by his coworkers. In a short period he became a tutor to new colleges, he liked hanging out with colleagues for a beer or two. Quite a loss, just like many of the other with a high percentage of them university trained, PhDs and masters etc.

So you plan to live in a hole and disavow interpersonal connections throughout the world? Wake up, we all live on planet Earth, and many of us are connected to people in other countries.

Oh come on Karl. Get real.

Not sure why you’re thinking it was anyone but the Iranian State. Nobody “thoroughly investigates” a crash site with a bulldozer before the country it’s flagged to can come in. It’s hard to think Americans or Russia snuck in, shot down a plane and snuck out when everybody and their brother had their head on a pivot expecting a U.S. response. It’s even more doubtful since Iran didn’t pitch your theory first. There’s just so much to consider beyond the current most plausible theory - A mistake was made.

Really? You are trying to blame the USA for this accidental shoot down? You are a worthless pinko commie idiot.

No details on the events that took place and already making comments about how it was the company who built it?

Talk about jumping to conclusions...

We have no idea what went wrong yet. A technical problem could be a shortcoming on the airline's part as well. We'll have to wait and find out.

yup